Why Ending TPS for Burma Is Built on False Claims: The Elections Are a Sham and the Crisis Is Worsening
In announcing the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Burma (Myanmar), DHS Secretary Kristi Noem claimed that “the situation in Burma has improved enough that it is safe for Burmese citizens to return home” and went so far as to describe the junta’s upcoming elections as “free and fair,” praising the role of the Burma (Myanmar) military and China in brokering “successful ceasefire agreements.”
These assertions are flatly contradicted by our PowerMentor teams on the ground in the region, the best available evidence from the United Nations, human rights organizations, religious freedom monitors, and even U.S.-linked policy institutions. Far from improving, Burma is in a deepening civil war, humanitarian collapse, and religious persecution crisis—and the elections being prepared by the junta are widely described as a sham.
1. Evidence That the Elections Are Not Free and Fair
a. Opposition parties are banned, leaders jailed, and millions cannot vote
Multiple independent analyses show that the elections scheduled for late 2025 or early 2026 are being engineered to cement junta rule, not to reflect the will of the people.
Most genuine opposition parties are banned or dissolved. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and at least 39 other parties were struck from the register after refusing to comply with junta-imposed rules.Reuters
Over 22,000 political prisoners are in detention, including many democratically elected representatives and activists, making meaningful political competition impossible.The Guardian
The junta admits it cannot hold elections nationwide; large parts of the country are under control of ethnic resistance organizations and People’s Defense Forces, beyond junta authority.Reuters
Experts across the political spectrum describe these polls as a “sham election”:
An East Asia Forum analysis concludes that the Union Election Commission is non-transparent, heavily militarized, and pushing electronic voting in ways that raise serious concerns about fraud and intimidation.East Asia Forum
The Lowy Institute notes that the junta’s planned elections offer “no end to Myanmar’s suffering,” highlighting that the process is designed to legitimize military rule rather than restore democracy.Lowy Institute
Election specialists quoted by The Guardian call the promised vote a “sham” and warn that it is likely to deepen conflict, not resolve it.The Guardian
In short, the conditions for a free and fair election—freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, competition among parties, independent media, and nationwide access to polling—do not exist. To describe these elections as “free and fair” is factually indefensible.
2. The Situation in Burma Is Not Improving – It Is Deteriorating
a. UN and human rights bodies: the crisis is worsening, not easing
Major international bodies are unanimous: the human rights and humanitarian situation is getting worse.
In January 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported that the situation in Myanmar was worsening, with the military “lashing out indiscriminately” against civilians through airstrikes, artillery, and village burnings.OHCHR
An October 2025 UN report to the General Assembly describes a “devastating humanitarian and human rights crisis” in which the junta has failed to consolidate control and continues to commit large-scale abuses that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.OHCHR
Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2024 similarly states that since the 2021 coup, the military has driven Myanmar deeper into a “human rights and humanitarian catastrophe,” imposing martial law in dozens of townships and using lethal force against civilians.Human Rights Watch
b. Airstrikes, scorched-earth campaigns, and war crimes
Rather than de-escalating, the junta has escalated its use of air power and terror tactics:
HRW documented a significant upswing in unlawful airstrikes targeting villages, schools, and clinics, often far from any legitimate military objective.Human Rights Watch
Amnesty International and other groups report that civilians in areas controlled by both the military and some armed groups remain trapped in cycles of violence, with the military still responsible for the vast majority of violations.Amnesty International
The UN Human Rights Council has had to call specifically for a halt to shipments of jet fuel because it is being used by the junta to carry out airstrikes that amount to war crimes.Amnesty International
c. Massive displacement and state collapse
Far from stabilizing, Burma is sliding further into failed-state conditions:
A UK parliamentary research briefing (April 2025) details how the military’s brutality and economic collapse have produced millions of internally displaced people and refugees, with the UN’s investigative mechanism providing “shocking evidence of gross human rights violations.”Parliament Research Briefings
A 2025 analysis by Vision of Humanity notes that Burma (Myanmar)’s planned elections are taking place amid ongoing armed conflict and severe humanitarian distress, not in a context of recovery or stability.Vision of Humanity
A CRS (Congressional Research Service) brief to the U.S. Congress underscores that the Burmese military continues to commit “grievous human rights abuses”, particularly against ethnic minorities, and that the country remains politically fractured and unstable.Congress.gov
This is not the profile of a country that is “safe” for refugees to return to—it is the profile of a country in active collapse.
3. Religious Persecution Is Intensifying, Not Receding
The claim that conditions have improved enough for safe return ignores documented, worsening religious persecution.
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) reports:
An October 2024 Burma Country Update concludes that escalating conflict has had a “severely negative impact” on freedom of religion or belief. The military has attacked churches, mosques, monasteries, and religious leaders, particularly in Christian and Rohingya communities.USCIRF
USCIRF’s wider reporting highlights the destruction of religious sites, blocking of humanitarian aid, and ongoing detention of at least 128 religious leaders.USCIRF
A 2025 USCIRF-linked statement describes a junta airstrike on a Buddhist festival that killed dozens and wounded many more, noting that even the religious majority is no longer safe.USCIRF
Christian advocacy organizations likewise note that Christian persecution has not eased but continues, with churches burned, pastors arrested, and Christian communities forced to flee.International Christian Concern
USCIRF explicitly warns that allowing TPS to lapse would push Burmese nationals in the U.S. “back into the hands of their persecutors.”USCIRF
4. Organized Crime, Scam Compounds, and Chinese Influence
Far from becoming safer or more orderly, Burma has become one of the global epicenters of organized crime:
Rights group Fortify Rights and others have documented how junta-linked networks and Chinese-backed operators run cyber-scam compounds and trafficking rings that exploit tens of thousands of people, generating billions of dollars and fueling transnational criminal activity.Fortify Rights
This environment of lawlessness, trafficking, and criminal governance is another strong indicator that return is unsafe, particularly for vulnerable populations like women, ethnic minorities, and political dissidents.
5. Why Ending TPS for Burma Is Misguided and Dangerous
Given this body of evidence, the assertion that Burma is now safe, more stable, or moving toward free and fair elections is demonstrably false:
The elections are widely condemned as a sham, designed under military control with most genuine opposition eliminated.East Asia Forum The Guardian
The human rights situation is not improving; it is deteriorating according to the UN High Commissioner, OHCHR reports, and major NGOs.OHCHR 2OHCHR
Religious persecution is worsening, with USCIRF documenting escalating attacks on Christians, Rohingya Muslims, and even Buddhist communities.USCIRF USCIRF
Organized crime and Chinese-linked scam and trafficking operations are expanding, making Burma more dangerous for ordinary people and undermining regional and U.S. security.Fortify Rights
Terminating TPS under the claim that conditions have “improved” and elections are “free and fair” effectively rewards the junta, validates Chinese strategic narratives, and abandons refugees—including Christians, ethnic minorities, democracy activists, and survivors of sexual violence—to a regime the international community continues to denounce for atrocity crimes.
This is not just a policy mistake. It is a profound misreading of reality that contradicts U.S. evidence, international consensus, and the core values of democracy, human rights, and religious freedom.
References
Amnesty International. (2024, April 4). UN Human Rights Council: Resolution on Myanmar takes crucial stand against deadly jet fuel supply chain.
Amnesty International. (2025, October 24). Southeast Asia: ASEAN summit must address deteriorating crisis in Myanmar and ongoing scam compound activity.Amnesty International
Congressional Research Service. (2025, September 2). Burma: Background and issues for Congress (IF12331).Congress.gov
East Asia Forum. (2025, November 16). Myanmar’s planned elections are a sham.East Asia Forum
Fortify Rights. (2025, September 4). U.N. Member States: Impose jet fuel and weapons embargo on Myanmar.Fortify Rights
Guardian. (2025, March 10). Myanmar junta’s promise of elections denounced as “sham” by experts.The Guardian
Human Rights Watch. (2024, January 11). Myanmar: Upswing in unlawful airstrikes.Human Rights Watch
Human Rights Watch. (2024). World report 2024: Myanmar.Human Rights Watch
OHCHR. (2024, January 30). Myanmar: Human rights situation worsens as military lashes out indiscriminately.OHCHR
OHCHR. (2025, October 20). Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar (A/80/490).OHCHR
USCIRF. (2024, October). Country update: Burma.USCIRF
USCIRF. (2025, October 29). A religious freedom lifeline to Burma’s persecuted people of faith needs to be preserved.USCIRF
USCIRF. (n.d.). Burma (Myanmar).USCIRF
Vision of Humanity. (2025, November 18). Election plans amid Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis and ongoing conflict.Vision of Humanity
And recent news coverage: Reuters, AP News, and others on the staged multi-phase election process and continued conflict.Reuters
