Why Scotland’s Independence Could Shake NATO and the UK
If Scotland becomes its own country, it could change everything for the United Kingdom—and even put NATO’s defense at risk. Here’s why it matters and what could happen if Scotland decides to leave the UK.
What Is NATO and Why Is It Important?
NATO is a group of 31 countries (including the United States and the UK) that agree to protect each other. If one country gets attacked, the others help defend it. It’s kind of like a big team meant to stop wars before they start. The UK is one of NATO’s most important members because of its military strength and location.
Scotland Wants to Leave the UK—Why Now?
Scotland is one of four parts of the UK (along with England, Wales, and Northern Ireland). In 2014, Scotland voted to stay in the UK—but things changed after Brexit (when the UK left the European Union in 2016). Most people in Scotland didn’t want to leave the EU, and now more are saying they want independence to join the EU again on their own.
What Happens If Scotland Leaves?
If Scotland separates from the UK, here are a few major things that could happen:
1. The UK Could Lose Most of Its Oil
Scotland has control over a part of the North Sea that holds a huge amount of oil and gas.
Right now, 90% of the UK’s oil comes from the North Sea, and most of that would go to Scotland if it became independent.
That would leave the rest of the UK needing to buy more expensive oil from other countries—hurting its economy and energy independence.
2. The UK Could Lose Key Military Bases
Scotland is home to major UK military bases, including:
Faslane Naval Base – where the UK keeps its nuclear submarines.
Airbases – used to track Russian jets flying near NATO countries.
If Scotland becomes independent, it could ask the UK to remove these bases. That would be a big problem for the UK and NATO, which rely on Scotland’s location to defend Europe and North America from Russian threats.
3. NATO’s Security Could Be Weakened
Scotland sits next to the GIUK Gap (Greenland–Iceland–UK Gap). This is a key route where Russian submarines pass through the Atlantic Ocean. If NATO can’t monitor this area well, Russian submarines could sneak closer to Europe or even the U.S.
If Scotland doesn’t allow NATO to use its land for military operations, that could leave a big hole in NATO’s defense system.
4. The UK Could Get Smaller
If Scotland becomes independent, it might inspire Northern Ireland to do the same. This could eventually reduce the UK to just England and Wales, a much smaller country with less global influence.
5. Communication Lines Could Be At Risk
95% of the world’s internet cables run under the ocean near Scotland.
These cables carry data between the U.S. and Europe.
If the UK or NATO lose control of those areas, those cables could be at risk of attack or damage—especially from Russian submarines.
This already happened once in 2022 when cables between Norway and a key satellite base were mysteriously cut—just before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Why Scotland Matters So Much
Scotland isn’t just a beautiful country with castles and bagpipes. It’s also:
A source of vital oil and gas.
The home of key military defense bases.
Located in a strategic place for protecting Europe and America.
A potential weak spot that enemies like Russia could exploit if it leaves NATO.
What Could Be Done?
If Scotland does become independent, it would need to decide:
Will it join NATO and allow bases to stay?
Will it stay neutral and remove all nuclear weapons and NATO operations?
Will it keep oil for itself or share it with the UK?
These questions don’t just affect Scotland—they affect global safety.
In Simple Terms:
If Scotland leaves, the UK becomes weaker.
If NATO loses Scotland, the West becomes more vulnerable to threats from Russia.
The whole world could feel the effects.
Sources:
BBC News. (2014). Scottish independence: What happens to Trident? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28010252
Arms Control Association. (2014). Scottish Bid Imperils UK Nuclear Force. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2014-07/news/scottish-bid-imperils-uk-nuclear-force
Economics Observatory. (2021). North Sea revenues and Scottish independence. https://www.economicsobservatory.com/higher-north-sea-revenues-what-impact-on-scotlands-independence-debate
UK Parliament. (2023). Defense in Scotland: Impact of independence. https://publications.parliament.uk
War Room (US Army War College). (2022). NATO and Scotland’s strategic value. https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/braveheart
