The U.S. Is Changing Course on Burma—Why Ethnic Unity Matters Now More Than Ever
On July 24, 2025, the U.S. Treasury quietly removed a handful of Burma-linked names from its sanctions list. It wasn’t a headline-grabbing move, but it sent shockwaves across diplomatic and activist circles. For the first time since the 2021 coup, Washington has loosened some pressure on Burma’s military rulers, signaling a shift in strategy.
The big question: Why would America ease sanctions on a regime accused of atrocities? And what does this mean for Burma’s ethnic groups fighting for autonomy and survival?
Why the U.S. Is Doing This
For four years, “maximum pressure” didn’t break the State Administration Council (SAC). Instead, the generals dug in deeper, leaning on China, Russia, and illicit economies. The U.S. is pivoting for practical reasons:
Strategic Leverage vs. China: Burma sits on massive rare earth deposits—key for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and U.S. defense tech. China currently dominates this market. The U.S. wants another supplier.
Cybercrime Crisis: Scam syndicates in Burma have defrauded Americans of billions. The U.S. needs SAC’s cooperation to dismantle these operations.
Cold Realities: Isolating the regime hasn’t worked. So, Washington is now using sanctions as a bargaining chip, not a blunt weapon.
Whether this is a diplomatic “olive branch” or a legal cleanup, the message is the same: The U.S. is recalibrating priorities from democracy promotion to securing American interests.
(Source: AGS Myanmar Weekly Business Insights, July 25, 2025)
What This Means for Ethnic Groups
This pivot leaves one hard truth for Burma’s ethnic resistance: The U.S. cannot fight your fight for you.
For years, many believed strong U.S. sanctions were their shield. But today, Washington is signaling pragmatism over principle. The future of freedom for ethnic nationalities will not come from sanctions or foreign troops—it will come from unity at home.
Here’s the stark reality:
Divided forces are weak forces. When each group (Karen, Karenni, Kachin, Shan, Mon, Chin, Arakan, and others) has fractions with their people fighting each other—the SAC wins without lifting a finger.
Internal rivalries have been the greatest gift to the junta. While ethnic groups argue over territory, ideology, and leadership, the military consolidates power.
A house divided cannot stand. This is more than a proverb; it’s a warning. If ethnic forces stay fractured, outside powers will treat them as irrelevant.
Unity Is Survival
Why is unity critical now more than ever?
International Leverage: A united ethnic front can demand recognition and negotiate from strength. Fragmented voices get ignored.
Military Effectiveness: Coordinated commands and shared intelligence can break SAC’s grip faster than scattered offensives.
Future Governance: If ethnic states can’t cooperate now, how will they govern later? Unity today lays the foundation for tomorrow’s autonomous or confederate system.
The SAC knows this. That’s why they invest so heavily in divide-and-rule tactics. Every time an ethnic armed group clashes with another, Min Aung Hlaing doesn’t just smile—he survives.
The Warning From History
Every movement that achieved freedom—from the American colonies in 1776 to South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle—had one common factor: unity in purpose. Internal divisions delayed liberation by decades in many cases. Burma’s ethnic nationalities stand at the same crossroads.
Bottom Line
The U.S. will pursue American interests first. Sanctions will come and go. But the survival of ethnic peoples—and their dream of self-determination—depends on their ability to stand together, now, not later.
A people divided against themselves cannot stand. Unity isn’t just a slogan—it’s the last defense against permanent oppression.
References
AGS Myanmar Weekly Business Insights. (2025, July 25). From Trump with Leverage: The Tatmadaw’s Opening, Congress Stranded, and the Diaspora’s Fury.
Reuters. (2025, July 25). US lifts sanctions on Burma junta allies after general praises Trump.
Human Rights Watch. (2024). Burma: Worsening repression under military rule.
