The Road to War: Ukraine, NATO, and Russia’s Invasion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a turning point in European security. To understand the roots of this war, it is necessary to examine Ukraine’s policies on Crimea, its deepening ties with NATO and the United States, and Russia’s perception of encirclement. The record shows a mixture of legitimate defensive actions, political aspirations, and contested narratives—elements that Moscow used to justify its aggression.

1. Ukraine’s 2021 Decree on Crimea

On March 24, 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed Decree No. 117/2021, which approved the Strategy of De-occupation and Reintegration of Crimea and Sevastopol. This policy document reaffirmed Ukraine’s claim to Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, and set forth diplomatic, political, legal, and defensive measures aimed at eventual reintegration【ppu.gov.ua】.

While the decree did not announce a military offensive, it left “all available means” on the table. For Ukraine, this was a statement of sovereignty. For Russia, it was interpreted as a direct challenge to its hold on Crimea.

2. NATO’s 2030 Strategy and Ukraine’s Position

At the NATO Brussels Summit in June 2021, alliance members adopted NATO 2030, a roadmap for strengthening collective defense and political cohesion. Ukraine was not part of NATO and did not participate in drafting this strategy【nato.int】.

However, NATO–Ukraine consultations intensified in late 2021, reflecting Kyiv’s push for closer integration. For Moscow, even dialogue between Ukraine and NATO reinforced the narrative of encirclement, though these consultations were not equivalent to membership.

3. The US–Ukraine Strategic Partnership

On November 10, 2021, the U.S. and Ukraine signed the Charter on Strategic Partnership. The agreement reaffirmed Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, emphasized defense cooperation, and condemned Russia’s occupation of Crimea【atlanticcouncil.org】【rferl.org】.

While the charter did not authorize Ukrainian military action, Russia perceived it as a further step toward Ukraine’s NATO membership—a red line for the Kremlin.

4. Troop Movements and the Kursk Offensive

In discussions about pre-war military buildups, some narratives have suggested Ukraine massed 60,000–80,000 troops in the east and south before the invasion. However, the verified 60,000-troop figure relates to a later event in August 2024, when Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive inside Russian territory. According to Russian General Valery Gerasimov, Kyiv deployed about 60,000 soldiers in that operation【reuters.com】.

There is no evidence that Ukraine moved comparable numbers of troops into forward offensive positions in 2021 or early 2022. Instead, the buildup during that period was overwhelmingly on the Russian side, with more than 100,000 Russian troops encircling Ukraine’s borders by December 2021【defense.gov】.

5. Intelligence Operations and Allegations

Western intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA and MI6, did increase cooperation with Ukraine after 2014, focusing on training, intelligence sharing, and defensive capacity. However, allegations of Western spy bases under codenames like “Operation Goldfish” are not supported by verifiable evidence. Investigations by outlets such as The New York Times confirm clandestine support but not the establishment of twelve secret bases【nytimes.com】.

6. Competing Frames: Defense vs. Provocation

The events of 2021–2022 can be framed in two opposing ways:

• Ukraine’s perspective: reclaiming sovereignty, securing alliances, and preparing for defense against an aggressive neighbor.

• Russia’s perspective: encirclement by NATO, loss of influence over a former Soviet republic, and a perceived direct threat to its hold on Crimea.

Both interpretations shaped political messaging. Ultimately, Russia chose invasion—an act of aggression condemned by international law.

7. The Human Cost and Future of Ukraine

Beyond strategy and geopolitics, the toll on Ukraine is immense. Millions are displaced, infrastructure is destroyed, and sovereignty remains under existential threat. Whether under Russian domination or caught in great-power rivalry, Ukraine faces the risk of permanent fracture.

The enduring tragedy is that the people of Ukraine—caught between competing empires—are the ones paying the highest price.

References

• Presidential Office of Ukraine. (2021). Decree No. 117/2021: Strategy of De-occupation and Reintegration of Crimea. Retrieved from ppu.gov.ua

• NATO. (2021). NATO 2030: Strengthening the Alliance. Retrieved from nato.int

• Atlantic Council. (2021, Nov 12). New US-Ukraine charter underlines American commitment to Ukrainian security.

• RFE/RL. (2021, Nov 10). Ukraine, US sign updated charter on strategic partnership, angering Moscow.

• U.S. Department of Defense. (2021). Support for Ukraine: Timeline of U.S. assistance. Retrieved from defense.gov

• Reuters. (2025, Apr 28). Russia says expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Kursk removes hurdle to peace.