The Coming Collision: Why China and Russia Are Not True Allies — And Why Their “No-Limits” Partnership Will Break

For the world watching Ukraine and Taiwan, it may appear that China and Russia have formed an unbreakable anti-Western alliance. Beijing refused to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, while Russia has turned eastward for survival as sanctions crushed its economy. China now buys 60% of its energy from Russia, providing Moscow the cash needed to wage war after European energy imports fell by nearly 80%.

On the surface, this looks like a marriage of power.
But this is not a friendship — it is a geopolitical trap.

The truth is clear: China and Russia are historical rivals, and their current partnership is a temporary alliance born out of necessity — not genuine trust.

A Partnership Built on Fear — Not Loyalty

Both nations share three major strategic fears:

• Fear of U.S. military power and NATO encirclement

• Fear of losing control over strategic regions

• Fear of economic collapse without the other

Russia’s fear: NATO at its borders, especially if Ukraine and Georgia joined the alliance.
China’s fear: U.S. naval blockade cutting off its oil and trade routes through Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and the Strait of Malacca, where 70% of its energy imports pass.

This fear drove Moscow and Beijing together — but fear is not the foundation of loyalty. It is the foundation of temporary expedience.

History Shows They Are Natural Adversaries

China has not forgotten a century of humiliation, and Russia played a role in it.

• In 1860, a weakened Qing dynasty ceded Outer Manchuria to Russia under threat of war.

• This region today contains Russia’s most valuable Pacific ports and submarine bases.

• Chinese leaders still view this territorial loss as unfinished business.

In 1969, the two communist nations even fought border battles near Manchuria, and the conflict nearly escalated to nuclear war.

History teaches us: China remembers. And China waits.

The Fragile Balance: Energy vs. Land and Water

Russia has land and resources. China has capital and manpower. Today:

• Russia needs Chinese money and markets.

• China needs Russian energy and future access to fresh water — especially Lake Baikal, the world’s largest freshwater reservoir.

In 2017, China tried to build a pipeline from Lake Baikal into China.
Russian protests stopped it.

But as China faces a looming water crisis — with 20% of the world’s population and only 7% of the fresh water — the pressure to secure Siberian water and territory will grow.

If a future Russian leader tries to resist Chinese access to water or raises energy prices, Beijing could leverage its power — diplomatically or militarily.

Russia once used “historical claims” to annex Crimea.
China could one day use the same argument to reclaim Outer Manchuria.

The Real Future: Competition, Not Cooperation

In the long arc of history, China and Russia do not share destiny — they share a contested border and competing imperial visions.

Russia fears NATO today.
But its existential threat comes from the East, not the West.

When Russia is weak and isolated — as it is now — China presses forward.

This “no-limits partnership” is simply a ceasefire between two powers preparing for the next phase of history.

Why This Matters for the West — and the World

The relationship between Beijing and Moscow is not a brotherhood — it is a cold marriage of necessity.
And when necessity changes, so will the alliance.

This means:

• The West should prepare for future conflict between China and Russia

• Policymakers must recognize this fracture and use diplomacy to exploit it

• Nations like India, Japan, and South Korea must watch Siberia and the Pacific

• The U.S. must maintain strong Indo-Pacific and NATO alliances

Because when this alliance breaks — and it will —
the geopolitical map of Eurasia will transform again.

Key Takeaways

• China and Russia are long-term rivals, not natural allies

• Their partnership exists only because both fear the United States and NATO

• China seeks resources, land, and water — and has never forgotten its historic losses

• Russia’s weakness today is China’s opportunity tomorrow

• Future conflict over Siberia and water is highly possible

References

Treaty of Aigun. (1858). Agreement between the Russian Empire and the Qing Dynasty establishing boundary changes in Manchuria.

Convention of Peking. (1860). Treaty between the Qing Dynasty and the Russian Empire finalizing territorial cessions to Russia.

Central Intelligence Agency. (2023). The world factbook: China; Russia. U.S. Government Publishing Office.

Chinese Communist Party. (1949). Founding proclamation of the People's Republic of China. Beijing, China: People's Daily Archives.

Council on Foreign Relations. (2023). Russia’s war in Ukraine and global energy shifts. Council on Foreign Relations Reports.

International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2024). Military balance report. Routledge.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. (2022). Statements on China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership. Government of China.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2022). NATO statements on Russian aggression and Ukraine support. NATO Publications.

Russian Federation Government. (2022). Economic and energy export data post-Ukraine sanctions. Moscow: Federal Customs Service.

U.S. Navy War College. (2023). Strategic chokepoints and maritime security: Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca. Naval Analysis Papers.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2022). Global freshwater availability report. United Nations Publications.

World Bank. (2023). China and Russia economic indicators. World Bank Data Reports.