New Study Debunks Gaza Genocide Claims, Finds Flaws in UN, International Reporting on Way
Here’s a high-level summary of the facts contained in the newly released study, titled “Debunking the Genocide Allegations: A Reexamination of the Israel-Hamas War from October 7, 2023 to June 1, 2025” published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies213-2.9.2025-Edited.
Purpose
This report examines allegations that Israel committed genocide during the 2023–2025 Gaza conflict. The authors focus strictly on factual, historical, and statistical analysis, not legal or ethical conclusions.
Central Findings
1. Starvation Allegations
Claims that Israel starved Gazans were based on flawed or inflated figures (e.g., misreported “500 daily trucks” baseline).
Food deliveries during most of the war exceeded pre-war levels.
UN agencies (notably UNRWA) later issued quiet retroactive corrections but without public acknowledgment.
Israel’s March 2025 suspension of aid is criticized, but famine projections (tens of thousands of deaths) never materialized.
2. Urban Warfare & Human Shields
Hamas built a 500+ km tunnel system with 5,700 shafts embedded in civilian infrastructure.
Civilians were systematically used as human shields, with weapons stored in homes, schools, and hospitals.
These conditions shaped IDF operations and casualty outcomes.
3. Massacre & Deliberate Killing
No evidence of a systematic Israeli policy to massacre civilians.
Verified incidents of potential war crimes exist but represent a small fraction of total casualties.
Allegations of widespread executions or drone “child-hunting” were found implausible and unsupported.
4. Indiscriminate Bombing
No evidence of carpet bombing or intentional civilian targeting.
IDF often aborted strikes due to proportionality concerns; precautions taken were described as unprecedented globally.
“Safe zones” were statistically safer than combat areas, though not fully protected.
Use of “dumb bombs” and AI judged consistent with military necessity and international law.
5. Casualty Figures
Gaza Health Ministry data deemed unreliable and manipulated (combatants listed as civilians, inflated “women and children” figures).
Updated records show ~50% women/minors, not 70% as widely reported.
Patterns align with earlier conflicts, not genocide-level anomalies.
6. Humanitarian & Media Bias
UN agencies and NGOs often relied on biased or politically shaped data.
Phenomena identified:
Echo chambers (repetition of flawed data)
Certainty mirage (illusion of accurate casualty counts)
Muted corrections (false famine/casualty reports corrected later without publicity).
Historical parallels drawn with Iraq sanctions (1990s), where false child mortality figures persisted long after debunking.
Overarching Conclusion
Genocide allegations against Israel are not supported by factual evidence reviewed by the study.
While individual misconduct and possible war crimes occurred, these do not amount to systematic extermination policies.
Overuse of the term “genocide” risks devaluing its meaning for future cases of actual mass extermination.
Takeaway for Leadership Use: The report frames Israel’s actions as tragic but not genocidal, challenges widely cited humanitarian narratives, and calls for more rigorous, evidence-based methodologies in analyzing conflict data.
Surprising Highlights
Food Aid Surpassed Pre-War Levels
From Oct 2023 through early 2025, more food entered Gaza than before the war, contrary to widespread famine projections.
The often-cited “500 daily trucks” figure was inaccurate — the actual pre-war average was closer to 73 food trucks per day.
Predicted Famine Deaths Never Happened
UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) projected 78,000+ starvation deaths by Jan 2025.
These deaths did not occur, even according to Gaza Health Ministry and independent surveys.
UNRWA Quietly Corrected Its Own Data
In May 2024, UNRWA claimed food aid dropped by 70% during Israel’s Rafah operation.
Months later, it secretly revised its numbers upward, aligning with IDF data showing aid actually increased — but never publicized the correction.
Life Expectancy in Gaza Was Rising Pre-War
Between 2006–2022, Gaza’s infant mortality declined and life expectancy rose, matching or exceeding neighboring countries like Egypt and Jordan — undermining claims that Gaza was already on the brink of famine before the war.
Hamas’s Tunnel Network Was the Largest Ever Documented
Over 500 km of tunnels with 5,700 shafts, integrated into civilian infrastructure — described as unprecedented in modern warfare.
Massacre Claims Lack Forensic Evidence
Despite Gaza being one of the most documented war zones in history, no credible forensic evidence was found for systematic executions or mass killings by Israel (in contrast to Syria, Iraq, or ISIS atrocities).
Casualty Manipulation by Gaza Health Ministry
Hamas-directed policy since 2014 required all killed operatives be listed as “civilians.”
The famous claim that 70% of casualties were women and children was shown false — updated records put the figure at ~50%.
Safe Zones Actually Were Safer
Civilians directed into “safe zones” suffered 2–3.5% of total fatalities, meaning they were far less dangerous than other areas — contrary to media claims.
AI and ‘Dumb Bombs’ Misrepresented
Allegations that Israel used AI recklessly or relied excessively on “dumb bombs” were misleading.
Even “dumb bombs” were dropped with precision by pilots, and AI was used only as a support tool, not a replacement for human judgment.
Pattern of Humanitarian Data Failures
Parallels drawn with Iraq in the 1990s, where inflated child death claims from sanctions were later proven false but remained widely believed.
The study argues Gaza reporting followed the same flawed pattern — alarmist claims get headlines, corrections are hidden.
Most Shocking Takeaway: The report asserts that while individual war crimes likely occurred, there is no evidence of systematic genocide — and that the term itself is being dangerously diluted into a political tool when applied indiscriminately.
Myth vs. Fact: Israel-Hamas War (2023–2025)
Based on BESA Center report: Debunking the Genocide Allegations213-2.9.2025-Edited
Fact: Food deliveries during the war exceeded pre-war levels until March 2025. The widely quoted “500 trucks daily” baseline was false — only about 73 food trucks/day entered before the war.
Myth 2: Tens of thousands died from famine.
Fact: UN projections warned of 78,000+ hunger deaths by Jan 2025. None of these deaths occurred, even according to Gaza’s own health ministry data.
Myth 3: UNRWA showed aid collapsed during Rafah operations.
Fact: UNRWA later quietly corrected its own numbers — aid actually increased — but the correction was buried, never publicized.
Myth 4: Gaza was already near famine before Oct 7, 2023.
Fact: Infant mortality fell and life expectancy rose steadily from 2006–2022, matching or exceeding Egypt and Jordan.
Myth 5: Hamas fought on open battlefields.
Fact: Hamas operated from homes, schools, hospitals, and a 500 km tunnel network — the largest underground system ever recorded in warfare.
Myth 6: Israel massacred civilians systematically.
Fact: No credible forensic evidence supports mass executions or genocidal killings by Israel. Verified misconduct cases exist but are isolated, not systematic.
Myth 7: 70% of Gaza casualties were women and children.
Fact: Updated data shows about 50%, with men aged 15–59 making up most of the remainder. Hamas policy required labeling its fighters as “civilians.”
Myth 8: “Safe zones” were equally deadly.
Fact: Fatalities in safe zones were only 2–3.5% of total deaths — far lower than other areas, showing these zones were indeed safer.
Myth 9: Israel used “dumb bombs” and AI recklessly.
Fact: “Dumb bombs” were dropped with pilot precision, and AI was used only as a support tool. There’s no evidence these methods increased civilian deaths.
Myth 10: Humanitarian reports are always reliable.
Fact: The study draws parallels to Iraq (1990s), where inflated child-death claims were later debunked but still believed. Same cycle: alarmist headlines, hidden corrections.
Bottom Line: The report argues that while individual war crimes occurred, there’s no evidence of genocide — and that overusing the term “genocide” risks stripping it of meaning for future atrocities.
