KNU Rejects ISP-Myanmar Report, Claims 90% Control of Thai-Myanmar Border
Controversy Over Border Control
The Karen National Union (KNU) has pushed back against a recent report by the Institute of Strategy and Policy – Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar), which stated the group controls only one-third of the border between Myanmar and Thailand. In a firm rebuttal, the KNU claimed it actually controls 90 percent of the border area, a figure nearly three times greater than ISP-Myanmar’s estimate.
The ISP-Myanmar report, published on July 21, 2025, concluded that as of July 15, the KNU controlled approximately 800 kilometers (497 miles) of the 2,416-kilometer (1,501-mile) Thai-Myanmar border. According to the report:
The KNU exerts control over about 61% of Karen State.
It holds 340 miles (550 km) of the border in Karen State and 150 miles (240 km) in Tanintharyi Region.
These gains reflect a shift in the KNU’s strategy post-2021 coup toward securing borderlands over advancing inland, enhancing its control over trade routes and access to resources.
KNU Counters: ‘We Control Almost Everything’
In an exclusive interview with the Karen Information Center (KIC), Padoh Saw Taw Nee, the KNU spokesperson, dismissed the ISP-Myanmar findings as incomplete and inaccurate.
“In fact, around 90 percent of the Thailand-Myanmar border is already under our control,” Taw Nee asserted. “The report didn’t account for border areas extending all the way to Kawthaung, Myanmar’s southernmost town. The stretch we now control spans thousands of kilometers—an unprecedented achievement.”
He explained that only a handful of junta outposts remain along the border within KNU’s operational areas:
Methawaw Base (Brigade 7)
Wawlay Tactical Operations Command and Htee Ther Lel Outpost (Brigade 6)
Nat Aei Taung Base (Brigade 4)
Why the Numbers Differ
The significant discrepancy between ISP-Myanmar’s one-third estimate and the KNU’s 90 percent claim likely stems from differences in measurement.
ISP-Myanmar assessed the entire Thai-Myanmar border, from Tachileik in Shan State to Kawthaung in Tanintharyi Region.
The KNU’s calculation likely focuses only on Karen State and Tanintharyi Region, where it holds overwhelming dominance.
Maps included in ISP-Myanmar’s report show the KNU controls nearly all of Karen State’s border with Thailand, but not the full 2,416 kilometers of the national frontier.
Governance Ambitions: The Kawthoolei Government
Beyond military control, the KNU is actively building a civil administration under the name Kawthoolei Government, a term rooted in the Karen homeland identity.
According to Taw Nee:
“Without resources, it’s impossible to run a government. While our focus has been military, we are now providing administrative and civil services in controlled areas, funded by border resources.”
On June 14, 2025, the KNU announced via televised broadcast that the Kawthoolei Government is 80% established, aiming to integrate into a future federal democratic system for Myanmar.
Military Advances in 2025
The first half of 2025 marked significant KNU gains:
The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), KNU’s armed wing, captured 15 junta outposts in Myawaddy Township (Brigade 6).
Additional bases fell in Hpa-An District (Brigade 7) and Dawei Township, Tanintharyi Region (Brigade 4).
These victories consolidate KNU control over strategic trade corridors and reinforce its influence along the Thai border.
Strategic Implications
Controlling vast stretches of the border gives the KNU:
Economic Leverage: Ability to regulate cross-border trade and extract resources.
Political Power: A stronger position in federalism talks and peace negotiations.
International Ties: Opportunity to strengthen relationships with Thailand, facilitating humanitarian aid and security cooperation.
Taw Nee called on the global Karen community to unite behind the Kawthoolei Government, emphasizing the goal of a strong, autonomous governance system integrated into Myanmar’s federal future.
Conclusion
While ISP-Myanmar estimates one-third control, and the KNU asserts 90 percent dominance, both figures highlight one undeniable truth: the ethnic armed organization’s influence over the Thai-Myanmar border has never been stronger. This shift in territorial control is reshaping the dynamics of Myanmar’s civil war and altering the balance of power in the region.
References
Karen Information Center. (2025, July 23). KNU Disputes Report Saying it Controls a Third of Thai Border Areas.
Institute of Strategy and Policy – Myanmar. (2025, July 21). Territorial Control and Border Influence: Ethnic Armed Groups Post-2021 Coup. Yangon: ISP-Myanmar.
Burma News International (BNI). (2025, July 23). KNU Challenges ISP-Myanmar’s Findings on Border Control.
Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB). (2025, July). Karen National Union Expands Governance and Military Gains.