Global Watch September 29, 2025
Top Global Hot Spots & Conflict Risks
1. Sudan — Intensifying Civil Conflict & Regional Spillover
Current Situation & Risk Factors
The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has escalated. Advanced weaponry (surface-to-air missiles, drones) is proliferating across frontlines. The Washington Post
Infrastructure collapse, humanitarian crisis, and mass displacement compound chaos.
Epidemics are surfacing: dengue, cholera, malaria amid wrecked sanitation, overburdened clinics, and disrupted vector control. Reuters
The RSF has declared alternative governance structures (parallel governments) and attacks critical resources (oil fields, water, power stations).
Arms flows from external states (UAE, Iran, Turkey) pose risk of proxy escalation and regional destabilization. The Washington Post
Why It Matters
Sudan is becoming a security vacuum and a magnet for extremist groups, refugee flows (to Chad, South Sudan, Libya), and illicit trade routes.
Failure to contain conflict could destabilize the Sahel and East African corridors.
International arms and humanitarian policies will influence whether the conflict further fragments.
2. Gaza / Israel–Palestine — Famine, Siege, and War Strategy
Current Situation & Risk Factors
Israel’s military operations continue heavy airstrikes on urban areas, along with restrictions on movement.
Why It Matters
This remains one of the most internationally visible and volatile conflicts.
Every escalation risks regional spillover (Lebanon border, Sinai, Hezbollah).
3. Eastern DR Congo — M23, Regional Involvement, Mineral Conflict
Current Situation & Risk Factors
The M23 rebel movement, backed by Rwanda (as alleged by DRC), has captured Goma and Bukavu in 2025, prompting mass displacement. Wikipedia+1
A ceasefire deal was signed in June 2025, with promises of Rwandan troop withdrawal over 90 days—yet withdrawals remain incomplete. Wikipedia
The region is rich in minerals; armed groups vie for control over supply chains and resource zones.
Tensions with external actors (e.g. Rwanda, Uganda) intensify the risk of cross-border escalation.
Why It Matters
This conflict is a long-running “flashpoint” in Africa, with potential to spiral further.
The humanitarian toll is massive: hundreds of thousands displaced, aid access constrained.
A full regional war (e.g. DRC vs Rwanda) remains a danger if local tensions aren’t deescalated.
4. Yemen — Humanitarian Collapse & Proxy Warfare
Current Situation & Risk Factors
The Houthi movement has escalated its raids on UN buildings (Sanaa, Hodeidah) and detained aid workers. Wikipedia
The conflict is deeply proxy-driven: Iran supports Houthis; Saudi/Arab coalition backs the recognized government.
Maritime and Red Sea security is contested, affecting global shipping (Houthi drones and naval attacks).
Famine, cholera, displacement, and infrastructure destruction drive severe humanitarian need.
Why It Matters
Yemen is already one of the worst humanitarian crises globally.
It acts as a strategic theater for broader Middle East confrontation (Iran vs Gulf states).
Any further breakdown or escalation touches global trade (Red Sea) and refugee flows.
5. Burma (Myanmar) — Post-Coup Civil War & Ethnic Conflict
Current Situation & Risk Factors
Since the 2021 military coup, resistance forces and ethnic militias challenge junta control across multiple fronts.
The war has become fragmented, with multiple theaters (Kachin, Shan, Rakhine, Karen along Thai border etc.).
Civilians are heavily affected: forced displacement, village burnings, breakdown of services.
Global attention and leverage are limited due to geographic distance and constrained media access.
Why It Matters
Burma’s (Myanmar) conflict is emblematic of post-coup civil wars with no clear centralized axis.
It tests regional institutions (ASEAN, China) and their capacity to influence justice or resolution.
It is also an underreported crisis with high long-term consequences for Southeast Asia stability.
6. Ukraine / Europe — Russia Invasion & NATO Dynamics
Current Situation & Risk Factors
Russia continues its invasion, resisting Ukraine’s counteroffensives; war is protracted and destructive.
Airspace violations, drones, and cyber warfare create tensions near NATO borders.
NATO states have warned they will intercept or shoot down aircraft violating airspace. The Australian
Domestic and external pressure to maintain support for Ukraine (military aid, sanctions) is rising.
Why It Matters
This remains the primary state-to-state conventional war in Europe and impacts global energy, security, and alliance politics.
A wider spillover (direct NATO-Russia clash) is considered a serious escalation risk.
Global supply chains, military posture in Europe, and deterrence strategies hinge on this conflict.
7. U.S. Military / Security Posture: Venezuela & Caribbean Region
The U.S. has deployed three Aegis guided-missile destroyers and additional warships off the Venezuelan coast. The ostensible rationale is to counter maritime drug trafficking and cartel operations. Atlantic Council
Venezuela responded with naval and coastal military exercises in disputed zones, adding to diplomatic tension and signaling readiness. Global Nation
There is also reporting that the U.S. Navy conducted strikes on suspected drug-running boats, with at least 17 deaths reported in some sources, intensifying questions about rules of engagement and international law in maritime zones. Yahoo
These operations reflect a shift toward “over-the-horizon” projections of power in regions adjacent to U.S. shores, intersecting with illicit trafficking, regional security, and Venezuela’s domestic dynamics.
Risk & Significance
Escalated U.S. presence near Venezuela increases the chance of maritime or aerial incidents, diplomatic confrontations, or miscalculations—especially if Venezuelan air or naval forces respond.
It may also provoke domestic reaction in Venezuela, reinforcing narratives of foreign aggression, which can be used politically by Maduro’s government.
The operations could blur lines between counter‑narcotics missions and military escalation, raising legal, ethical, and geopolitical concerns.
8. Other Escalation Zones to Watch
Kashmir / India–Pakistan: Tensions over Kashmir remain a persistent flashpoint. Vision of Humanity
Sahel Region (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger): Jihadist insurgencies, coups, and weak governance form overlapping crises. ACLED+1
Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia): Conflict spillovers, internal insurgencies, and state fragility.
Middle East (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq): Proxy conflicts, state collapse risk, and sectarian tensions.
Thematic Patterns & Risk Drivers
Proxy Warfare: Many of these conflicts are fueled by external states or actors who seek influence (e.g. Sudan, Yemen, DRC).
Resource Competition: Natural resources—oil, minerals, waterways—are frequent triggers (DRC, Sudan, Middle East).
State Fragility & Governance Vacuums: Places with weak institutions (Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar) are more vulnerable to collapse.
Displacement, Hunger & Humanitarian Crisis: Conflict-driven famine/hunger is rising in multiple theatres (Gaza, Sudan, Yemen) Reuters
Technology & Warfare Evolution: Drones, missile systems, AI-enabled weapons and cyber warfare are shifting the nature of conflict.
Spillover & Regional Risk: Conflicts seldom stay contained—refugee flows, cross-border militia operations, arms proliferation ripple outward.
Key References & Sources
Sudan / RSF vs SAF Conflict
Surface-to-air missiles and deadly drones spread on Sudan’s battlefields — Washington Post (on escalation of weapon flows) The Washington Post
The War and Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan — Congressional Research Service backgrounder Congress.gov
Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help — International Rescue Committee (on displacement, humanitarian scale) Front page - US
Waste up, weaponry in: Sudan’s battle zones see proliferation of drones & SAMs — Al Jazeera coverage of military and humanitarian developments Al Jazeera
Timeline of the Sudanese civil war (2025) — Wikipedia (compiled events) Wikipedia
2025 Omdurman market attack — Wikipedia (civilian casualty event) Wikipedia
2025 Saudi Hospital Attack — Wikipedia (hospital drone strike) Wikipedia
Gaza / Israel–Palestine Conflict & Famine Risk
Famine Declared in Gaza: What to Know — Council on Foreign Relations (overview of food security crisis) Council on Foreign Relations
The top 10 crises the world can’t ignore in 2025 — IRC (noting Gaza food insecurity and broad crisis mapping) Front page - US
UNRWA Situation Report #189 — UNRWA report on humanitarian state in Gaza / West Bank UNRWA
Yemen & Humanitarian Collapse
Yemen: Funding shortages, arbitrary detentions threaten response to mass hunger — Humanitarian News (on aid disruptions) Donare
Broader Conflict & Hunger Themes
7 Current Conflicts in the World Today and Their Effects — WFP USA (overview of conflicts and hunger links) World Food Program USA
How conflict drives hunger for women and girls — UN Women op-ed (perspective on gendered impact) UN Women
