Burma’s Gas Pipeline Crisis: KNU Gains Threaten Junta Revenue and Thailand’s Energy Security

As Burma’s (Myanmar) civil war intensifies, the strategic Htee Khee border area has become a flashpoint with far-reaching geopolitical and economic implications. The Karen National Union (KNU), through its armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), has made sweeping advances across Kawthoolei (Karen State), positioning itself near Burma’s most critical energy infrastructure—three major natural gas pipelines supplying Thailand. This development underscores a dramatic shift in power dynamics that could reshape the region’s political and economic landscape.

Strategic Chokepoint: Htee Khee and the Pipelines

The Htee Khee border point, a key trade hub and vital strategic corridor, has fallen under KNLA control, according to reports from The Irrawaddy. These pipelines transport natural gas from Myanmar’s offshore Andaman Sea fields to Thailand, providing 14% of Thailand’s total gas supply and generating 8% of its electricity. Control over this chokepoint grants the KNU significant leverage, both militarily and politically, as the pipelines represent an economic lifeline for the Burmese junta.

KNU’s Expanding Influence

Since the February 2021 coup, the KNU has shifted its strategy toward securing borderlands rather than advancing into central Burma. The organization disputes estimates suggesting it controls only one-third of the Thai-Myanmar border, asserting instead that it commands 90% of the border area. Independent sources estimate the KNU now controls approximately 61% of Kawthoolei (Karen State), following systematic KNLA offensives that have dismantled numerous junta outposts along the frontier.

Implications of Pipeline Control

1. Revenue Loss for the Junta:
Burma’s natural gas exports, particularly to Thailand, constitute the junta’s largest source of foreign currency—over US$1 billion annually. Disruptions or loss of control over the pipelines could critically undermine the regime’s ability to fund military operations, pay personnel, and maintain patronage networks.

2. Political Recognition for KNU:
Dominating such key infrastructure elevates the KNU’s political stature. This newfound leverage could compel Thailand, which relies heavily on Burma’s gas, to engage with the KNU as a legitimate power broker in future negotiations.

3. Regional Energy Security:
Thailand faces a significant energy vulnerability if pipeline operations are disrupted. Any prolonged interruption could strain power grids, increase energy costs, and potentially destabilize industrial output.

Humanitarian Fallout

Amid these strategic maneuvers, a deepening humanitarian crisis unfolds. Over 108,000 refugees remain stranded along the Thai-Burma border, while international aid programs struggle with reduced funding and escalating security risks. Civilian displacement, coupled with infrastructure damage, threatens to exacerbate malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and regional instability.

Broader Regional Instability

This pipeline crisis is part of a larger tapestry of regional unrest. Burma’s civil war, marked by military brutality and economic collapse, has emboldened multiple resistance movements. Ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces have made significant gains in 2025, aiming for a decisive blow against the junta. Concurrently, escalating Thai-Cambodian border clashes—with heavy artillery exchanges and mass displacement—underline the fragility of Southeast Asia’s security architecture.

Conclusion

The KNU’s advances near Htee Khee represent more than a tactical victory; they symbolize a potential paradigm shift in Burma’s conflict. Control over the country’s most lucrative energy assets could cripple the junta financially, empower ethnic resistance forces, and redefine the balance of power in the region. However, this development also risks intensifying humanitarian suffering and destabilizing Thailand’s energy supply. The coming months will reveal whether this leverage translates into political negotiation—or triggers a broader regional conflagration.

References

• Al Jazeera. (2025). Myanmar resistance forces make strategic gains.

• Insight Myanmar. (2025). KNLA advances and junta retreat in Karen State.

• ReliefWeb. (2025). Humanitarian crisis along Thai-Myanmar border worsens.

• The Irrawaddy. (2025). KNLA captures key border hub near Htee Khee.

• UN News. (2025). Civil war and human rights abuses in Myanmar.

• Reuters. (2025). Thai-Cambodian border tensions escalate amid artillery fire.