Burma on a Knife’s Edge: General Min Aung Hlaing’s Fake Reform Risks Total Collapse
As the people of Burma (Myanmar) endure the deadliest phase of civil war in decades, General Min Aung Hlaing has once again reshuffled his deck—not to bring peace, but to maintain the illusion of reform while clinging to absolute power. His latest maneuver—replacing the junta’s State Administration Council with a so-called “caretaker government” and a new National Security and Peace Commission—should fool no one. This is not a transition. It is an entrenchment.
The Move: One General, Many Titles
On July 31, 2025, the military ended its self-declared state of emergency. The SAC was disbanded, only to be replaced by a civilian-looking cabinet still dominated by military figures. General Min Aung Hlaing now sits as "President," while maintaining control as Commander-in-Chief of the Defense Services. The newly formed Peace Commission is nothing more than a rebranded junta, with nearly all members pulled from the military elite or loyalists within the previous SAC.
This is not democratization. It is a centralized autocracy masquerading as reform.
The “Election” Illusion
The regime has promised national elections by December 2025 or early 2026, but under what conditions?
Most opposition parties are banned, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), which overwhelmingly won in 2020.
A new election law requires parties to field candidates in over half of the country’s constituencies—an impossible standard in a war zone and a thinly veiled tactic to eliminate ethnic parties.
Meanwhile, martial law remains in place across dozens of townships, and civil liberties are suspended. Political opposition is criminalized, and election-related protests could carry the death penalty.
This is not an election. It is a staged coronation under the barrel of a gun.
A Country in Collapse
Since the February 2021 coup, Burma has descended into nationwide resistance. What began as peaceful protest became full-scale armed conflict. The junta has lost control of large swaths of territory, especially in ethnic states and newly liberated regions.
According to UN reports, over 2.8 million people are displaced, and more than 70,000 homes have been destroyed by military airstrikes and artillery.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance and the Karenni, Chin, and Karen resistance forces have launched offensives across the country, successfully capturing bases and towns from junta forces.
The National Unity Government (NUG), now recognized by many as the legitimate voice of the people, governs large underground zones and is building administrative and judicial systems independent of the junta.
The junta's attempt to feign legitimacy through reshuffling is detached from reality. The regime no longer governs—it terrorizes. And it is bleeding ground by the day.
Accountability Is Coming
The international community must not be deceived. No act of rebranding can erase the junta's atrocities:
Deliberate targeting of civilians, schools, and clinics.
Arbitrary detentions, torture, and executions of journalists, medics, monks, and children.
Weaponizing aid by blocking humanitarian access to displaced populations.
Collusion with crony companies and cross-border trafficking of rare earths and jade to China in exchange for weapons and legitimacy.
These are not the acts of a transitional government. These are war crimes, and the commander at the top must be held to account.
Our Warning
To those watching this crisis unfold:
This is not progress. It is a trap.
Engaging with the junta under the illusion of reform rewards war criminals and weakens the struggle for federal democracy.
Participating in the junta’s “elections” undermines ethnic autonomy and nullifies the sacrifice of those who have fought for freedom.
Standing idle while the junta rebrands itself enables future massacres.
Our Position
We advocate for:
The full rejection of any junta-led political process, including sham elections.
Recognition and support for the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic resistance administrations.
Sustained international sanctions on military officials and enterprises, with no easing until war crimes end and accountability begins.
A bottom-up peace process, where ethnic nationalities and civil society are at the table—not silenced by force.
Humanitarian corridors guaranteed by international monitors to reach displaced populations across resistance-held zones.
Final Word
Burma’s future will not be decided in the hollow halls of Naypyidaw or through a rigged election orchestrated by a warlord. It will be built in the shadows of resistance, carved by those who refuse to be ruled by fear.
To side with the general is to side with instability, impunity, and collapse.
To side with the people is to side with justice, dignity, and true peace.
References
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (2025). Myanmar: Military Atrocities Continue Amid Civil Conflict.
Human Rights Watch. (2025). Burma’s Widening War: Military Abuses and Civilian Harm.
Reuters. (2025, July 31). Myanmar Forms Commission Led by Junta Chief to Hold Elections.
The Guardian. (2025, March 10). Myanmar Junta's Promise of Elections Denounced as ‘Sham’ by Experts.
International Crisis Group. (2024). Myanmar’s Resistance Grows: Why the Junta Is Losing Ground.
NUG Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs. (2025). Report on IDPs, Casualties, and Destruction as of June 2025.
