Breaking the Longest War: Burma’s Civil War, the Karen Struggle, and a Generational Turning Point
Synthesizing Saw D. Tharckabaw’s “Burma’s Civil War and the Karens” (Mar 5, 2024) with additional sources.
Overview
Burma’s (Myanmar’s) seven-plus decades of civil war are best understood through the lens of the Karen people’s fight for equality, self-determination, and a genuine federal union—a struggle repeatedly derailed by Burman ultra-nationalism, military dominance, and peace processes used to divide and weaken ethnic fronts. Tharckabaw’s account traces the arc from pre-colonial dispossession to today’s Gen-Z–led resistance, arguing the junta’s position is deteriorating rapidly after stunning ethnic armed group gains in late 2023 and the regime’s desperate 2024 conscription. External evidence broadly supports this trajectory and key claims on the 1947 Panglong vision, the military’s constitutional entrenchment in 2008, the 2021 coup, mass atrocities (including against the Rohingya), the Operation 1027 battlefield shock, and conscription’s blowback. PeacemakerHouse of Commons LibraryEncyclopedia BritannicaIISS Myanmar Conflict MapBrookings
From First Peoples to the Edge of Federalism—and Back
Early Roots, Colonial Shift
The Karen are among the earliest settlers across Lower Burma and into present-day Thailand. Centuries under Mon and Burman feudal dominance featured land seizures and subjugation; British annexation (1824–1886) brought modern administration, education, and space for Karen political organization (KNA, KCO, BKNA, KYO). (Tharckabaw, 2024)
World War II Trauma and Fragile Reconciliation
Atrocities committed by the hastily formed Burma Independence Army (BIA) against Karen civilians in 1942 seeded enduring mistrust, even as Aung San later sought reconciliation. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
Panglong’s Promise—and Aung San’s Assassination
In February 1947, Aung San and Chin, Kachin, and Shan leaders signed the Panglong Agreement, widely understood to pave the way for a federal union premised on equality and internal autonomy for Frontier Areas; many ethnic leaders interpreted the spirit to include a right to secession should the union fail them. Aung San’s assassination (July 1947) destroyed momentum and the 1947 Constitution that followed was unitary in essence, consolidating Burman elite power. Transnational Instituteburmalink.org
Independence, Repression, and the Karen Turn to Arms
1948–1950: Protest to War
On February 11, 1948, ~450,000 Karen held silent marches demanding a Karen State, equality, and peace; demands were rejected. On January 31, 1949, after militia attacks on Karen quarters around Rangoon, the Karen National Defense Organization (KNDO) launched armed resistance—Karen Revolution Day. The Battle of Insein followed; outgunned Karen forces eventually shifted to guerrilla warfare. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
The Military Locks in Power
Ne Win’s 1962 Coup and One-Party State
General Ne Win seized power in 1962, denouncing federalism as “disintegration,” crushing student dissent, nationalizing the economy, and pushing ethnic forces eastward. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
1988 Uprising, SLORC, and the 1990 Election Betrayed
The 1988 pro-democracy uprising was met with mass killings; the junta (SLORC) held an election in 1990, the NLD won, and the army refused to hand over power—cementing the pattern of promised reform, followed by repression. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
Peace Processes as Divide-and-Rule
From the 1990s onward, selective ceasefires—especially along the China border—fractured ethnic unity. Under the 2008 Constitution, the military reserved 25% of parliamentary seats and permanent control of Defence, Home, and Border Affairs, creating a veto over constitutional change and embedding de facto military supremacy even during civilian interludes. House of Commons LibraryConstitute ProjectCarnegie Endowment
The quasi-civilian Thein Sein government (2011–2015) pursued the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Eight groups, including the KNU, signed in 2015; NMSP and LDU joined in 2018. Critics and later scholarship describe the NCA as non-inclusive, a pathway that sidelined major actors and failed to address core federal demands—echoing Tharckabaw’s view that it was used to split ethnic fronts. asean-aipr.orgTransnational InstituteBurma News InternationalTandfonline
2016–2020: Dialogue Without Ground Rules
With the NLD in office, political dialogue dragged under a military insistence on disarmament (DDR) before constitutional reform. Simultaneously, the Tatmadaw waged heavy campaigns against Kachin, Ta’ang, Rakhine, and Kokang forces, while international bodies documented mass atrocities against Rohingya (2017) as crimes against humanity with genocidal intent. Human Rights WatchUnited Nations Human Rights Office+1ReliefWeb
2021 Coup and the Rise of a New Resistance
On February 1, 2021, Min Aung Hlaing staged a coup, detaining elected leaders and triggering nationwide protests and the Civil Disobedience Movement. This catalyzed a Gen-Z–led armed resistance (PDFs) that forged deeper cooperation with ethnic armies. Encyclopedia BritannicaWikipedia
Battlefield Shock: Operation 1027 and After
In late 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA, AA) launched Operation 1027, overrunning scores of junta positions, severing key trade arteries to China, and inspiring parallel offensives nationwide. By late November, rebel claims and independent analysis agreed the regime had lost significant ground—an inflection Tharckabaw frames as evidence the junta is bleeding capacity. WikipediaIISS Myanmar Conflict MapBrookings
Desperation and Blowback: Conscription 2024
On February 10–12, 2024, the junta activated conscription under a 2010 law: men 18–35 (up to 45 for certain professions) and women 18–27 (up to 35 for certain professions) required to serve two years (extendable to five in emergencies). Reporting documented panic flights, draft-evasion, and expectations this would feed the resistance—precisely the dynamic Tharckabaw anticipates. AP NewsPBSThe Guardian
What This All Means
Continuity: Tharckabaw’s core thesis—that racial-supremacist Burman militarism has repeatedly sabotaged federalism while using peace processes to divide and co-opt—is borne out by the 2008 constitutional lock-in and the NCA’s limited inclusivity. House of Commons LibraryTandfonline
Change: The Gen-Z insurgency, networked across PDFs and ethnic forces, plus the scale and simultaneity of Operation 1027, represent a structural break from earlier cycles. The junta’s conscription signals stress, risks accelerating manpower flight, and further erodes legitimacy. IISS Myanmar Conflict MapBrookingsAP News
Constraint: Even with battlefield momentum, a stable federal order will require:
credible civilian control of the military (impossible under the 2008 arrangement),
inclusive constitutional talks with all ethnic constituencies, and
internationally supported transitional justice for atrocity crimes (Rohingya included). House of Commons LibraryUnited Nations Human Rights Office
Chronological Snapshot (integrated from Tharckabaw + sources)
Pre-1947: Karen ancestral presence; centuries of subjugation; colonial modernization opens political space. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
Feb 12, 1947: Panglong agreement envisions an equal union/federal spirit. Transnational InstitutePeacemaker
July 19, 1947: Aung San assassinated—federal path derails; unitary 1947 constitution adopted. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
Jan 4, 1948: Independence; Feb 11, 1948 Karen mass protests; Jan 31, 1949 KNDO launches armed struggle; Insein shifts war to guerrilla. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
Mar 2, 1962: Ne Win coup; militarized one-party rule. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
1988–1990: Uprising crushed; NLD wins election; army refuses transfer. (Tharckabaw, 2024)
2008: Constitution hard-wires 25% military seats + 3 security ministries. House of Commons Library
2015–2018: NCA signed by 8 (+2 later); criticized as non-inclusive. asean-aipr.orgBurma News InternationalTandfonline
2017–2018: UN mission finds genocidal crimes vs Rohingya. United Nations Human Rights Office+1
Feb 1, 2021: Coup reignites nationwide resistance. Encyclopedia Britannica
Oct–Nov 2023: Operation 1027 shocks the battlefield; regime loses key ground. WikipediaIISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Feb 2024: Conscription triggers mass flight; likely boosts PDFs. AP News
Conclusion
The record supports Tharckabaw’s central claims: genuine federalism has been repeatedly thwarted by a military establishment built to preserve Burman supremacy, while “peace” frameworks often functioned as dividers rather than bridges. What’s new is the scale, coordination, and resilience of the post-coup resistance and the junta’s self-inflicted manpower crisis. Converging evidence indicates a shrinking pathway for the Tatmadaw to re-impose nationwide control without transformative political change—including dismantling the 2008 constitutional guarantees of military dominance and opening the door, at last, to inclusive federalism and accountability.
References
Tharckabaw, S. D. (2024, March 5). Burma’s Civil War and the Karens. (Internal paper).
AP News. (2024, Feb 12). Myanmar: Military government activates conscription law.
BBC/Encyclopedia Britannica. (2025). 2021 Myanmar coup d’état (overview).
Brookings Institution. (2024, Jan 16). Operation 1027: Changing the tides of the Myanmar civil war.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2015, Jun 2). Myanmar’s military keeps firm grip on democratic transition.
Constitute Project. (2008). Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (selected provisions).
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). (2023, Nov 20). Operation 1027 reshapes Myanmar’s post-coup war.
OHCHR / UN Human Rights Council. (2018). Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar (A/HRC/39/64).
Parliamentary (UK House of Commons Library). (2021, Feb 16). Myanmar: Military takeover and international response.
The Diplomat. (2023, Oct 30). Operation 1027: A turning point for Myanmar’s resistance struggle.
Transnational Institute. (2017, May 4). Jump-starting the stalled peace process (Panglong context).
Transnational Institute. (2023, Apr 1). The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement in Myanmar (report).
UCDP – Uppsala Conflict Data Program. (2018). NCA signatories (update).
UN Documents / Security Council & EU/EP records. (2018–2019). Briefings and resolutions referencing genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes against Rohingya.
Guardian / PBS NewsHour. (2024, Feb). Conscription law details and reactions.
