Arakan’s Final Push: How the Arakan Army’s Rise in Rakhine Alters the Struggle for Ethnic Autonomy in Burma
Burma’s military regime has launched counter-offensives nationwide—but nowhere is its control more tenuous than in Rakhine (Arakan). There, the Arakan Army (AA) now commands 14 of the state’s 17 townships, edging ever closer to complete control. This insurgency, rooted in a decades-long quest for sovereignty, now reverberates through other ethnic theatres of resistance—most notably among the Karen and Kachin—raising the stakes for Burma’s fragile transition and fragmentation.
Awakening the Resilience: Arakan Army and Solidarity Among Ethnic Resistance
The AA isn’t an isolated actor. In the early 2010s, it fought alongside the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) against the Tatmadaw in Burma’s north, building military and political ties within the broader Northern Alliance of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) Council on Foreign Relations. This collaboration underscores a shared resistance infrastructure spanning Kachin, Shan, Chin, and Rakhine regions.
Efforts to break the Tatmadaw’s grip have manifested in shifting alliances. In Kachin State, the KIA continues to drive momentum, reclaiming territory and weakening junta-aligned militias such as the NDA-K (New Democratic Army – Kachin) Wikipedia.
Meanwhile, in Karen regions—long a crucible of anti-central rule resistance—the conflict evolves. The renowned Karen National Union (KNU) and its military arm (KNLA) continue their fight for autonomy. the Kawthoolei Army (KTLA) continues its fight from independence. Since early 2024, the Karen National Army (KNA) splintered from the Tatmadaw-aligned Karen Border Guard Force, reasserting itself as an independent EAO—signaling deep fracturing within pro-regime proxies.
Arakan’s Shockwaves Across Burma’s Ethnic Frontiers
Shifting Capacity and Morale:
The AA’s advances bolster the morale and perceived viability of armed resistance across ethnic states. Victories in Rakhine embolden the KIA, KNLA, and other groups resisting the regime—fostering hope for a federated or autonomous future Wikipedia.
Coordination and Shared Strategy:
The Northern Alliance model reflects reinforced cooperation among EAOs. With Rakhine secure, the AA can serve as both a strategic and logistical backbone—sharing arms, tactics, and planning across frontlines. This synergy may increasingly enable multi-front resistance across Burma.
Fragmentation of Central Control:
As AA dismantles junta control in Rakhine, similar fragmentation unfolds in Karen and Kachin zones. For instance, the KIA’s success in degrading militia proxies like the NDA-K weakens junta influence in Burma’s north, while in Karen territories, the rebranded KNA signals further decentralization Wikipedia.
Geopolitical Shifts:
Rakhine’s strategic coastline—including proximity to regional trade routes and major infrastructure—amplifies its importance. Control of such assets strengthens bargaining positions for both the AA and allied EAOs. This applies particularly in border areas where Kachin and Karen groups engage with Chinese influence and cross-border economies.
Humanitarian Consequences: A Nation Splintering Amid Civilian Pain
The AA’s campaign, while militarily effective, has borne a massive human cost. According to AA’s political wing, the United League of Arakan, junta air raids killed 402 civilians (including 96 children) between late 2023 and mid-2025; an additional 26 deaths this year were attributed to shelling, mines, and executions—with 12 more killed (including five children) in an August 26 strike Geopolitical MonitorAmnesty International.
Similarly, in Kachin State, fighting between the KIA and the Tatmadaw has displaced over 100,000 civilians, with both sides accused of atrocities—rape, torture, forced labor, and indiscriminate attacks CSIS+4Wikipedia+4fcnl.org+4. Karen State has endured over 200,000 civilian displacements and decades of violence since 1949—decades that continue to this day.
What Lies Ahead? A Fragmented Future or Federal Hope
The AA’s near-total control of Rakhine may become a template for fragmented sovereignty. As EAOs like the KIA and KNLA fortify their zones, Burma risks becoming a patchwork of semi-autonomous “mini‑states,” held together only by shared opposition to the junta.
But there is a possibility for a negotiated peace built on a federal framework. The struggle for an autonomous Kachin State, for instance, is seen as a potential milestone in Burma’s broader revolutionary pathway CSIS. An inclusive process, acknowledging the AA’s leap in Rakhine, could catalyze such a transformation—but only if the junta’s capacity to violently resist is diminished.
Conclusion
As Burma fractures under the weight of its many ethnic conflicts, the Arakan Army’s ascendance in Rakhine signals more than a regional victory—it is a turning point shaking the foundations of the military regime. The AA’s gains embolden the Kachin and Karen resistance, erode central control, and reconfigure political and humanitarian stakes across the country. Whether this momentum leads to a new, fragmented reality or the birth of a federal Burma depends on political will—and whether the international community will seize the opening before more lives are lost.
References
Wikipedia, “Arakan Army”
Wikipedia, “Kachin conflict”
CSIS, “Update on the Armed Resistance in Burma’s Kachin State”
Wikipedia, “Karen conflict”
Wikipedia, “Karen National Army”
Wikipedia, “New Democratic Army – Kachin”
Wikipedia, “Kachin people”
Amnesty International, “Accountability needed for Myanmar atrocities against Rohingya”
Geopolitical Monitor, “Backgrounder: Ethnic Armies in the Myanmar Civil War”
Crisis Group, “Ethnic Autonomy and its Consequences in Post-coup Myanmar”
US Institute of Peace, “The Arakan Army in Myanmar: Deadly Conflict Rises in Rakhine State”
Global Conflict Tracker, “Civil War in Myanmar”
IISS analysis, “Myanmar’s War to Nowhere”
